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Nathan Lake v Jayden Gough (Fri 30 Nov 2018)

Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,611, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jayden Gough: 7,824, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 317% better than Jayden Gough.

Nathan Lake won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played 94% better than Jayden Gough in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nathan Lake was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,175 and 32,611 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 17,826 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nathan Lake would normally have been playing at level 20,922 (based on typical behaviour), Jayden Gough played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Lake changes to 0% and Jayden Gough changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Lake becomes 0% and for Jayden Gough becomes +2.9%.

Given Jayden Gough's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.6% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Nathan Lake is 0% and for Jayden Gough is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 86%, Jayden Gough: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 59%, Jayden Gough: 59%.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,611, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Jayden Gough: 7,982, level confidence: 59%.