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Nathan Lake v Youssef Mahmoud (Sat 01 Dec 2018)

Match won by Youssef Mahmoud. Result: 4-11,3-11,3-11.

Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,548, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Youssef Mahmoud: 27,010, level confidence: 37%.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Youssef Mahmoud.

Youssef Mahmoud won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Mahmoud played 230% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Mahmoud actually played at a level of 53,862 and Nathan Lake at a level of 16,322. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 99% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Mahmoud changes to +88% and Nathan Lake changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Mahmoud becomes +14.5% and for Nathan Lake becomes -6.4%.

Given Youssef Mahmoud's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.

Given Nathan Lake's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 59% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 78% for 'BUCS Individual Championships 2018' so the adjustment for Youssef Mahmoud is +7.5% and for Nathan Lake is -3.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Youssef Mahmoud is limited to +5.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Mahmoud: 61%, Nathan Lake: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Mahmoud: 31%, Nathan Lake: 42%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Lake: 31,897, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Youssef Mahmoud: 28,612, level confidence: 31%.