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David Freer v Mark Henson (Mon 03 Dec 2018)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,293, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Henson: 1,234, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mark Henson.

David Freer won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 40% better than Mark Henson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,492 and Mark Henson at a level of 1,069. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +15% and Mark Henson changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +7.9% and for Mark Henson becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for David Freer is +3.2% and for Mark Henson is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 91%, Mark Henson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 79%, Mark Henson: 80%.

Final level for David Freer: 1,334, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mark Henson: 1,198, level confidence: 80%.