David Freer v Mark Henson (Mon 03 Dec 2018)
Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
David Freer:
1,293, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mark Henson:
1,234, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Mark Henson.
David Freer won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played
40% better than Mark Henson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of
1,492 and Mark Henson at a level of
1,069. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +15% and Mark Henson changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +7.9% and for Mark Henson becomes -7.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for David Freer is +3.2% and for Mark Henson is -3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 91%, Mark Henson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 79%, Mark Henson: 80%.
Final level for David Freer:
1,334, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mark Henson:
1,198, level confidence: 80%.