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Steven Morley v Chris Cave (Mon 03 Dec 2018)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 9-11,7-11,9-11.

Starting level for Steven Morley: 1,819, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,811, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Steven Morley to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Chris Cave.

Chris Cave won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 40% better than Steven Morley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Cave actually played at a level of 2,144 and Steven Morley at a level of 1,536. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to +18% and Steven Morley changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes +8.2% and for Steven Morley becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Cave is +6.1% and for Steven Morley is -5.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steven Morley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 89%, Steven Morley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 75%, Steven Morley: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Morley: 1,730, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Chris Cave: 1,919, level confidence: 75%.