SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Nathan Wall v Shaun Mizen (Mon 03 Dec 2018)

Match won by Nathan Wall. Result: 15-10,15-12,15-4.

Starting level for Nathan Wall: 2,816, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Shaun Mizen: 2,307, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Nathan Wall to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Shaun Mizen.

Nathan Wall won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Wall played 73% better than Shaun Mizen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Wall actually played at a level of 3,353 and Shaun Mizen at a level of 1,937. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Wall changes to +17% and Shaun Mizen changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Wall becomes +6.5% and for Shaun Mizen becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Nathan Wall is +4.9% and for Shaun Mizen is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Wall: 88%, Shaun Mizen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Wall: 74%, Shaun Mizen: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Wall: 2,950, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Shaun Mizen: 2,194, level confidence: 73%.