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Andy Bradshaw v John Hughes (Mon 03 Dec 2018)

Match won by Andy Bradshaw. Result: 15-7,9-15,11-15,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Andy Bradshaw: 2,581, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for John Hughes: 1,886, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Andy Bradshaw to win as he is currently playing 37% better than John Hughes.

Andy Bradshaw won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Bradshaw played 15% better than John Hughes in this match.

As Andy Bradshaw has played below his allowed range at 2,284, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Bradshaw would normally have been playing at level 2,501 (based on typical behaviour), John Hughes played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Bradshaw changes to -4.5% and John Hughes changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Bradshaw becomes -2.7% and for John Hughes becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Andy Bradshaw is -2% and for John Hughes is +2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Bradshaw: 88%, John Hughes: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Bradshaw: 80%, John Hughes: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Bradshaw: 2,527, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for John Hughes: 1,931, level confidence: 85%.