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Peter Richardson v Adnan Khan (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 12-15,15-17,15-8,15-13,15-11.

Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,412, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Adnan Khan: 1,730, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Peter Richardson to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Adnan Khan.

Peter Richardson won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 11% better than Adnan Khan in this match.

As Peter Richardson has played below his allowed range at 2,066, his level reduction is 7.9% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Richardson would normally have been playing at level 2,329 (based on typical behaviour), Adnan Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to -6.7% and Adnan Khan changes to +8.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes -3.5% and for Adnan Khan becomes +4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is -2.6% and for Adnan Khan is +3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 83%, Adnan Khan: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 74%, Adnan Khan: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,347, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Adnan Khan: 1,785, level confidence: 77%.