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Matthew Marshall v Alex Preston (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Alex Preston. Result: 14-12,9-11,4-11,11-5,10-12.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,967, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 7,178, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Alex Preston.

Alex Preston won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex Preston played 9% better than Matthew Marshall in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex Preston actually played at a level of 8,833 and Matthew Marshall at a level of 8,099. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex Preston changes to +12% and Matthew Marshall changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex Preston becomes +4% and for Matthew Marshall becomes -5.3%.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.5% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Alex Preston is +2.8% and for Matthew Marshall is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex Preston: 90%, Matthew Marshall: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex Preston: 73%, Matthew Marshall: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,670, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 7,395, level confidence: 73%.