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Steve Gaylor v Mark Grace (Thu 06 Dec 2018)

Match won by Mark Grace. Result: 11-15,11-15,15-8,11-15.

Starting level for Steve Gaylor: 1,340, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,193, level confidence: 65%.
Steve Gaylor to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Mark Grace.

Mark Grace won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Grace played 20% better than Steve Gaylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Grace actually played at a level of 1,386 and Steve Gaylor at a level of 1,153. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Grace changes to +15% and Steve Gaylor changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Grace becomes +8.3% and for Steve Gaylor becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Isle of Man Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Mark Grace is +6.2% and for Steve Gaylor is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Grace: 81%, Steve Gaylor: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Grace: 70%, Steve Gaylor: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Gaylor: 1,277, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Mark Grace: 1,265, level confidence: 70%.