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Oscar Hill v Chris Salter (Sat 01 Dec 2018)

Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-3,11-2,11-4.

Starting level for Oscar Hill: 4,425, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Chris Salter: 2,340, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing 89% better than Chris Salter.

Oscar Hill won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played 267% better than Chris Salter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of 6,162 and Chris Salter at a level of 1,680. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +27% and Chris Salter changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +8.6% and for Chris Salter becomes -8.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Salter is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 80%, Chris Salter: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 58%, Chris Salter: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oscar Hill: 4,815, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Chris Salter: 2,250, level confidence: 63%.