Oscar Hill v Henry Withrington (Sun 02 Dec 2018)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-13,11-8,11-7,11-6.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,135, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Henry Withrington:
5,602, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Henry Withrington to win as he is currently playing
9% better than Oscar Hill.
Oscar Hill won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
26% better than Henry Withrington in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
6,031 and Henry Withrington at a level of
4,769. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +17% and Henry Withrington changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +5.5% and for Henry Withrington becomes -4.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 79%, Henry Withrington: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 68%, Henry Withrington: 76%.
A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
5,431, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Henry Withrington:
5,497, level confidence: 76%.