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John Hughes v Darrel South (Sat 08 Dec 2018)

Match won by Darrel South. Result: 14-16,15-9,13-15,15-11,11-15.

Starting level for John Hughes: 1,931, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Darrel South: 2,033, level confidence: 57%.
Darrel South to win as he is currently playing 5% better than John Hughes.

Darrel South won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darrel South played 7% better than John Hughes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darrel South actually played at a level of 2,047 and John Hughes at a level of 1,918. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darrel South changes to +0.7% and John Hughes changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darrel South becomes +0.5% and for John Hughes becomes -0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Darrel South is +0.4% and for John Hughes is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darrel South: 76%, John Hughes: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darrel South: 75%, John Hughes: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for John Hughes: 1,923, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Darrel South: 2,038, level confidence: 75%.