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Eain Yow Ng v Cameron Pilley (Tue 04 Dec 2018)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 10-12,9-11,11-4,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 35,191, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 38,580, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Eain Yow Ng won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 16% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eain Yow Ng actually played at a level of 39,656 and Cameron Pilley at a level of 34,236. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to +12% and Cameron Pilley changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes +2.8% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 85%, Cameron Pilley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 75%, Cameron Pilley: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 36,157, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 37,613, level confidence: 75%.