Tsz Fung Yip v Nathan Lake (Tue 04 Dec 2018)
Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-9,11-9,5-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Tsz Fung Yip:
40,227, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,727, level confidence: 42%.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing
27% better than Nathan Lake.
Tsz Fung Yip won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played
22% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
As Tsz Fung Yip has played below his allowed range at 38,693, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Tsz Fung Yip would normally have been playing at level 39,486 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Lake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to 0% and Nathan Lake changes to +1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes -0% and for Nathan Lake becomes +0.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 87%, Nathan Lake: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 85%, Nathan Lake: 63%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tsz Fung Yip:
40,157, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
32,026, level confidence: 63%.