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Diego Elias v Nicolas Mueller (Wed 05 Dec 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-7,11-7,6-11,11-1.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 52,284, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,202, level confidence: 63%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 33% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.

In this case, Diego Elias played at level 49,993 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 50,417 (based on typical behaviour), Nicolas Mueller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to 0% and Nicolas Mueller changes to +0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes 0% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 69%, Nicolas Mueller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 67%, Nicolas Mueller: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 52,174, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 37,479, level confidence: 77%.