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Ben Hedger v Matthew Marshall (Tue 11 Dec 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 6-11,7-11,8-11.

Starting level for Ben Hedger: 7,947, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,567, level confidence: 57%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Ben Hedger.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 56% better than Ben Hedger in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matthew Marshall actually played at a level of 10,906 and Ben Hedger at a level of 6,971. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to +13% and Ben Hedger changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes +3.8% and for Ben Hedger becomes -3.5%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Ben Hedger's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2018' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is +2.5% and for Ben Hedger is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 75%, Ben Hedger: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 66%, Ben Hedger: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Hedger: 7,753, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,790, level confidence: 66%.