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Liam Townsend v Amanda Warren (Thu 13 Dec 2018)

Match won by Amanda Warren. Result: 6-11,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Liam Townsend: 952, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Amanda Warren: 2,187, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Amanda Warren to win as she is currently playing 130% better than Liam Townsend.

Amanda Warren won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Amanda Warren played 74% better than Liam Townsend in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Amanda Warren was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 1,471 and 2,187 without affecting her level.

In this case, Amanda Warren played at level 1,741 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Amanda Warren would normally have been playing at level 1,833 (based on typical behaviour), Liam Townsend played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Amanda Warren changes to 0% and Liam Townsend changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Amanda Warren becomes 0% and for Liam Townsend becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Amanda Warren is 0% and for Liam Townsend is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Amanda Warren: 88%, Liam Townsend: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Amanda Warren: 76%, Liam Townsend: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Liam Townsend: 974, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Amanda Warren: 2,184, level confidence: 76%.