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Matthew Marshall v Matthew Morton (Sat 15 Dec 2018)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,790, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Matthew Morton: 4,488, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 118% better than Matthew Morton.

Matthew Marshall won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 94% better than Matthew Morton in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Marshall was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,008 and 9,790 without affecting his level.

In this case, Matthew Marshall played at level 8,712 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Matthew Morton is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 81%, Matthew Morton: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 76%, Matthew Morton: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,775, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Matthew Morton: 4,481, level confidence: 88%.