SquashLevels calculations
Nathan Lake v Harry Falconer (Sun 16 Dec 2018)
Match won by Nathan Lake. Result: 13-11,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,794, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
18,899, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing
68% better than Harry Falconer.
Nathan Lake won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Lake played
67% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
In this case, Nathan Lake played at level 31,498 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Harry Falconer is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Lake: 85%, Harry Falconer: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Lake: 84%, Harry Falconer: 88%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
31,794, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
18,899, level confidence: 88%.