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Jeannie Engela v James Mortimer (Wed 19 Dec 2018)

Match won by James Mortimer. Result: 2-3.

Starting level for Jeannie Engela: 167, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Mortimer: 216, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
James Mortimer to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Jeannie Engela.

James Mortimer won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

As James Mortimer has played below his allowed range at 194, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that James Mortimer would normally have been playing at level 211 (based on typical behaviour), Jeannie Engela played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 6.4% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Mortimer changes to -4.1% and Jeannie Engela changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Mortimer becomes -3.6% and for Jeannie Engela becomes +4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for James Mortimer is -1.8% and for Jeannie Engela is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Mortimer: 90%, Jeannie Engela: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Mortimer: 83%, Jeannie Engela: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeannie Engela: 170, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for James Mortimer: 212, level confidence: 83%.