Oscar Hill v Thomas Whiteway (Sun 23 Dec 2018)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-4,11-5,9-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,271, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Thomas Whiteway:
4,736, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Thomas Whiteway.
Oscar Hill won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
32% better than Thomas Whiteway in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
5,730 and Thomas Whiteway at a level of
4,356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +8.2% and Thomas Whiteway changes to -7.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3.2% and for Thomas Whiteway becomes -3.1%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 124% has been applied to his level change.
Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 111% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.6% and for Thomas Whiteway is -0.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 84%, Thomas Whiteway: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 78%, Thomas Whiteway: 82%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
5,301, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway:
4,709, level confidence: 82%.