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Nick Palmer v Ray Owens (Sun 30 Dec 2018)

Match won by Nick Palmer. Result: 3-2.

Starting level for Nick Palmer: 285, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Ray Owens: 254, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Nick Palmer to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Ray Owens.

Nick Palmer won 60% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Palmer actually played at a level of 282 and Ray Owens at a level of 257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0.9%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Palmer changes to -0.9% and Ray Owens changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Palmer becomes -0.9% and for Ray Owens becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Nick Palmer is -0.4% and for Ray Owens is +0.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Palmer: 79%, Ray Owens: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Palmer: 78%, Ray Owens: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Palmer: 283, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ray Owens: 254, level confidence: 87%.