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Oliver Collin v Rick Scannell (Mon 31 Dec 2018)

Match won by Rick Scannell. Result: 2-2.

Starting level for Oliver Collin: 290, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rick Scannell: 258, level confidence: 68%.
Oliver Collin to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Rick Scannell.

Rick Scannell won 50% of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 0%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rick Scannell actually played at a level of 274 and Oliver Collin at a level of 274. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 5.7%. As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rick Scannell changes to +4.2% and Oliver Collin changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rick Scannell becomes +3.6% and for Oliver Collin becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Henley Internal League' so the adjustment for Rick Scannell is +1.8% and for Oliver Collin is -1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rick Scannell: 83%, Oliver Collin: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rick Scannell: 78%, Oliver Collin: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Collin: 285, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Rick Scannell: 262, level confidence: 78%.