Oscar Hill v Thomas Whiteway (Thu 03 Jan 2019)
Match won by Oscar Hill. Result: 11-5,11-5,13-15,11-5.
Starting level for
Oscar Hill:
5,337, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Thomas Whiteway:
4,729, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Oscar Hill to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Thomas Whiteway.
Oscar Hill won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oscar Hill played
34% better than Thomas Whiteway in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oscar Hill actually played at a level of
5,823 and Thomas Whiteway at a level of
4,334. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oscar Hill changes to +8.6% and Thomas Whiteway changes to -7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oscar Hill becomes +3.3% and for Thomas Whiteway becomes -3%.
Given Oscar Hill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 126% has been applied to his level change.
Given Thomas Whiteway's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 110% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Oscar Hill is +0.6% and for Thomas Whiteway is -0.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oscar Hill: 86%, Thomas Whiteway: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oscar Hill: 79%, Thomas Whiteway: 86%.
Final level for Oscar Hill:
5,368, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Thomas Whiteway:
4,703, level confidence: 86%.