David O'Neill v Brian Cowley (Wed 09 Jan 2019)
Match won by David O'Neill. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-2.
Starting level for
David O'Neill:
1,591, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Brian Cowley:
632, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing
152% better than Brian Cowley.
David O'Neill won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David O'Neill played
106% better than Brian Cowley in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David O'Neill was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,048 and 1,591 without affecting his level.
In this case, David O'Neill played at level 1,304 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Brian Cowley is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David O'Neill: 82%, Brian Cowley: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David O'Neill: 74%, Brian Cowley: 76%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for David O'Neill:
1,589, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Brian Cowley:
631, level confidence: 76%.