Mark Webster-Smith v Dean Sowerby (Wed 09 Jan 2019)
Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 11-6,11-3,9-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Mark Webster-Smith:
1,970, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Dean Sowerby:
917, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing
115% better than Dean Sowerby.
Mark Webster-Smith won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 68% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played
39% better than Dean Sowerby in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mark Webster-Smith was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,447 and 1,970 without affecting his level.
As Mark Webster-Smith has played below his allowed range at 1,359, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Webster-Smith would normally have been playing at level 1,688 (based on typical behaviour), Dean Sowerby played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 10% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to -4.4% and Dean Sowerby changes to +9.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes -2.9% and for Dean Sowerby becomes +6.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 84%, Dean Sowerby: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 68%, Dean Sowerby: 71%.
A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith:
1,939, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Dean Sowerby:
971, level confidence: 71%.