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David Freer v Sarah Simpson (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,268, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Sarah Simpson: 170, level confidence: 10%.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 646% better than Sarah Simpson.

David Freer won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 120% better than Sarah Simpson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Freer was taking it easy by anything up to 53%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 283 and 1,268 without affecting his level.

In this case, David Freer played at level 473 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Freer would normally have been playing at level 599 (based on typical behaviour), Sarah Simpson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to 0% and Sarah Simpson changes to +9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes 0% and for Sarah Simpson becomes +6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 79%, Sarah Simpson: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 43%, Sarah Simpson: 17%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,266, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Sarah Simpson: 180, level confidence: 17%.