Steve Baker v Mark Webster-Smith (Wed 09 Jan 2019)
Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 10-12,11-9,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Steve Baker:
2,362, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Mark Webster-Smith:
1,935, level confidence: 67%.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Mark Webster-Smith.
Steve Baker won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played
33% better than Mark Webster-Smith in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of
2,463 and Mark Webster-Smith at a level of
1,856. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +3.8% and Mark Webster-Smith changes to -3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +2.5% and for Mark Webster-Smith becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 78%, Mark Webster-Smith: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 74%, Mark Webster-Smith: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Steve Baker:
2,417, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mark Webster-Smith:
1,885, level confidence: 79%.