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Joshua Green v Liam Davies (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Joshua Green. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Joshua Green: 1,636, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Liam Davies: 1,474, level confidence: 60%.
Joshua Green to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Liam Davies.

Joshua Green won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Green played 83% better than Liam Davies in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Green actually played at a level of 2,103 and Liam Davies at a level of 1,147. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Green changes to +27% and Liam Davies changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Green becomes +11.5% and for Liam Davies becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joshua Green is limited to +10% and Liam Davies is limited to -10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Green: 78%, Liam Davies: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Green: 61%, Liam Davies: 60%.

A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Green: 1,797, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Liam Davies: 1,390, level confidence: 60%.