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Jason Blue v Allister Crossley (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Jason Blue. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Jason Blue: 4,118, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Allister Crossley: 1,699, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jason Blue to win as he is currently playing 142% better than Allister Crossley.

Jason Blue won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Blue played 74% better than Allister Crossley in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jason Blue was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,788 and 4,118 without affecting his level.

In this case, Jason Blue played at level 3,162 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jason Blue would normally have been playing at level 3,388 (based on typical behaviour), Allister Crossley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Blue changes to 0% and Allister Crossley changes to +4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Blue becomes 0% and for Allister Crossley becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Blue: 86%, Allister Crossley: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Blue: 73%, Allister Crossley: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jason Blue: 4,112, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Allister Crossley: 1,747, level confidence: 75%.