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Chris Cave v Marc Taggart (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Chris Cave. Result: 11-2,10-12,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,921, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Marc Taggart: 1,025, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Marc Taggart.

Chris Cave won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Cave played 29% better than Marc Taggart in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Cave was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,545 and 1,921 without affecting his level.

As Chris Cave has played below his allowed range at 1,430, his level reduction is 8.1% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Cave would normally have been playing at level 1,723 (based on typical behaviour), Marc Taggart played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Cave changes to -5.8% and Marc Taggart changes to +8.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Cave becomes -3.4% and for Marc Taggart becomes +5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Cave: 80%, Marc Taggart: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Cave: 67%, Marc Taggart: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,854, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Marc Taggart: 1,083, level confidence: 71%.