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Chris Simpson v Perry Malik (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 33,709, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 11,034, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 206% better than Perry Malik.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 65% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,639 and 33,709 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Simpson played at level 21,452 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 25,278 (based on typical behaviour), Perry Malik played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to 0% and Perry Malik changes to +9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes 0% and for Perry Malik becomes +3%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 20% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is 0% and for Perry Malik is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 87%, Perry Malik: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 64%, Perry Malik: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 33,659, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 11,226, level confidence: 64%.