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Nick Thomson v Peter Crossman (Wed 09 Jan 2019)

Match won by Nick Thomson. Result: 12-15,15-10,14-16,15-6,15-13.

Starting level for Nick Thomson: 4,597, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Peter Crossman: 4,110, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nick Thomson to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Peter Crossman.

Nick Thomson won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Thomson played 12% better than Peter Crossman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Thomson actually played at a level of 4,602 and Peter Crossman at a level of 4,106. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Thomson changes to 0% and Peter Crossman changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Thomson becomes +0.1% and for Peter Crossman becomes 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Thomson: 82%, Peter Crossman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Thomson: 82%, Peter Crossman: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Thomson: 4,592, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Peter Crossman: 4,102, level confidence: 85%.