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Matthew Marshall v Calli Smith (Tue 08 Jan 2019)

Match won by Matthew Marshall. Result: 11-6,10-12,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Matthew Marshall: 9,443, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Calli Smith: 5,085, level confidence: 55%.
Matthew Marshall to win as he is currently playing 86% better than Calli Smith.

Matthew Marshall won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 72% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matthew Marshall played 41% better than Calli Smith in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Matthew Marshall was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,443 and 9,443 without affecting his level.

As Matthew Marshall has played below his allowed range at 7,292, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Matthew Marshall would normally have been playing at level 8,495 (based on typical behaviour), Calli Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall changes to -1.3% and Calli Smith changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matthew Marshall becomes -0.6% and for Calli Smith becomes +2.8%.

Given Matthew Marshall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Calli Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.4% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Matthew Marshall is -0.4% and for Calli Smith is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matthew Marshall: 81%, Calli Smith: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matthew Marshall: 71%, Calli Smith: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matthew Marshall: 9,390, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Calli Smith: 5,182, level confidence: 65%.