SquashLevels calculations
Ray Owens v Paul Carey (Fri 11 Jan 2019)
Match won by Ray Owens. Result: 3-1.
Starting level for
Ray Owens:
254, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Carey:
203, level confidence: 10%.
Ray Owens to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Paul Carey.
Ray Owens won 75% of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ray Owens changes to 0% and Paul Carey changes to 0%.
As Paul Carey has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Ray Owens's level has been left unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ray Owens: 91%, Paul Carey: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ray Owens: 91%, Paul Carey: 32%.
Final level for Ray Owens:
254, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Paul Carey:
203, level confidence: 32%.