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Steve Baker v Mark Grace (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Steve Baker. Result: 15-8,15-7,15-8.

Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,398, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Grace: 1,325, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Steve Baker to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Mark Grace.

Steve Baker won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 96% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Baker played 96% better than Mark Grace in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Baker actually played at a level of 2,493 and Mark Grace at a level of 1,274. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Baker changes to +2.7% and Mark Grace changes to -2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Baker becomes +2% and for Mark Grace becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Baker: 88%, Mark Grace: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Baker: 84%, Mark Grace: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Baker: 2,442, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Mark Grace: 1,289, level confidence: 81%.