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Lyndon Cheetham v Douglas Jacobsson (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Lyndon Cheetham. Result: 15-13,15-12,12-15,15-9.

Starting level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,180, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,443, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Lyndon Cheetham to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Douglas Jacobsson.

Lyndon Cheetham won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Cheetham played 22% better than Douglas Jacobsson in this match.

As Lyndon Cheetham has played below his allowed range at 1,863, his level reduction is 5.7% before damping. On the assumption that Lyndon Cheetham would normally have been playing at level 2,072 (based on typical behaviour), Douglas Jacobsson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 6.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham changes to -4.6% and Douglas Jacobsson changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Cheetham becomes -2.9% and for Douglas Jacobsson becomes +3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Cheetham: 76%, Douglas Jacobsson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Cheetham: 68%, Douglas Jacobsson: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lyndon Cheetham: 2,146, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Douglas Jacobsson: 1,487, level confidence: 84%.