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Thomas Whiteway v Steve Baker (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Thomas Whiteway. Result: 11-1,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,718, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Baker: 2,420, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Thomas Whiteway to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Steve Baker.

Thomas Whiteway won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Thomas Whiteway played 175% better than Steve Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Thomas Whiteway actually played at a level of 5,603 and Steve Baker at a level of 2,038. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway changes to +10.8% and Steve Baker changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Thomas Whiteway becomes +4% and for Steve Baker becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Baker is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Thomas Whiteway: 95%, Steve Baker: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Thomas Whiteway: 80%, Steve Baker: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Thomas Whiteway: 4,901, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Steve Baker: 2,301, level confidence: 72%.