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Mark Webster-Smith v Steven Morley (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 11-5,11-3,6-11,11-6.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 1,885, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steven Morley: 2,004, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Steven Morley to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mark Webster-Smith.

Mark Webster-Smith won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 35% better than Steven Morley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of 2,260 and Steven Morley at a level of 1,671. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +19% and Steven Morley changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +8.2% and for Steven Morley becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steven Morley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 88%, Steven Morley: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 74%, Steven Morley: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,037, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Steven Morley: 1,923, level confidence: 73%.