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Mark Webster-Smith v Robert Colquitt (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Mark Webster-Smith. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,037, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Robert Colquitt: 1,704, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Robert Colquitt.

Mark Webster-Smith won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Webster-Smith played 65% better than Robert Colquitt in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark Webster-Smith actually played at a level of 2,393 and Robert Colquitt at a level of 1,450. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith changes to +16% and Robert Colquitt changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Webster-Smith becomes +7% and for Robert Colquitt becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Robert Colquitt is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Webster-Smith: 86%, Robert Colquitt: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Webster-Smith: 73%, Robert Colquitt: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,176, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Robert Colquitt: 1,641, level confidence: 73%.