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Chris Cave v Calum Baker (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Calum Baker. Result: 7-11,11-5,9-11,8-11.

Starting level for Chris Cave: 1,809, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Calum Baker: 1,656, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Chris Cave to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Calum Baker.

Calum Baker won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Calum Baker played 20% better than Chris Cave in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Calum Baker actually played at a level of 1,893 and Chris Cave at a level of 1,583. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Calum Baker changes to +13% and Chris Cave changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Calum Baker becomes +6.5% and for Chris Cave becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Cave is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Chris Cave has already dropped 6.2% since starting this event at level 1921. The amount a player can drop in a single event is limited to 11.1% so Chris Cave's drop for this match has been limited to 5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Calum Baker: 90%, Chris Cave: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Calum Baker: 78%, Chris Cave: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Cave: 1,750, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Calum Baker: 1,761, level confidence: 78%.