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David O'Neill v Leslie Callow (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by David O'Neill. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,588, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leslie Callow: 848, level confidence: 67%.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Leslie Callow.

David O'Neill won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David O'Neill played 120% better than Leslie Callow in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David O'Neill actually played at a level of 1,721 and Leslie Callow at a level of 782. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David O'Neill changes to +5.5% and Leslie Callow changes to -6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David O'Neill becomes +3.5% and for Leslie Callow becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David O'Neill: 86%, Leslie Callow: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David O'Neill: 79%, Leslie Callow: 76%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,642, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Leslie Callow: 828, level confidence: 76%.