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Casey Riley v Peter Richardson (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Richardson. Result: 10-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Casey Riley: 2,490, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Peter Richardson: 2,337, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Casey Riley to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Peter Richardson.

Peter Richardson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Richardson played 48% better than Casey Riley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Richardson actually played at a level of 2,939 and Casey Riley at a level of 1,980. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Richardson changes to +13% and Casey Riley changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Richardson becomes +5.8% and for Casey Riley becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Richardson is +4.3% and for Casey Riley is -6.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Richardson: 86%, Casey Riley: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Richardson: 68%, Casey Riley: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Casey Riley: 2,325, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Peter Richardson: 2,434, level confidence: 68%.