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Paul Garbutt v Stuart Pidgeon (Fri 11 Jan 2019)

Match won by Paul Garbutt. Result: 15-5,3-15,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for Paul Garbutt: 2,053, level confidence: 33%.
Starting level for Stuart Pidgeon: 1,277, level confidence: 68%.
Paul Garbutt to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Stuart Pidgeon.

Paul Garbutt won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Garbutt played 25% better than Stuart Pidgeon in this match.

As Paul Garbutt has played below his allowed range at 1,685, his level reduction is 5.2% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Garbutt would normally have been playing at level 1,923 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Pidgeon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 7.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt changes to -4.1% and Stuart Pidgeon changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Garbutt becomes -2.7% and for Stuart Pidgeon becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vintage Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for Paul Garbutt is -2% and for Stuart Pidgeon is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Garbutt: 57%, Stuart Pidgeon: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Garbutt: 50%, Stuart Pidgeon: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Garbutt: 2,009, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Stuart Pidgeon: 1,304, level confidence: 73%.