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Roger Booker v Henry Brown (Thu 10 Jan 2019)

Match won by Henry Brown. Result: 4-15,6-15,11-15.

Starting level for Roger Booker: 876, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Henry Brown: 1,785, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Henry Brown to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Roger Booker.

Henry Brown won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Henry Brown played 114% better than Roger Booker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Henry Brown actually played at a level of 1,830 and Roger Booker at a level of 854. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Henry Brown changes to +1.6% and Roger Booker changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Henry Brown becomes +1.3% and for Roger Booker becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Henry Brown is +0.9% and for Roger Booker is -1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Henry Brown: 85%, Roger Booker: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Henry Brown: 83%, Roger Booker: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Booker: 863, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Henry Brown: 1,799, level confidence: 83%.