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David Wallond v Nic Davis (Sat 12 Jan 2019)

Match won by David Wallond. Result: 15-8,14-16,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for David Wallond: 2,988, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nic Davis: 2,715, level confidence: 66%.
David Wallond to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Nic Davis.

David Wallond won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wallond played 27% better than Nic Davis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wallond actually played at a level of 3,210 and Nic Davis at a level of 2,527. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wallond changes to +5.7% and Nic Davis changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wallond becomes +2.9% and for Nic Davis becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Vets Winter 2018/19' so the adjustment for David Wallond is +2.2% and for Nic Davis is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wallond: 90%, Nic Davis: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wallond: 84%, Nic Davis: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Wallond: 3,049, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Nic Davis: 2,642, level confidence: 75%.