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Peter Ginty v Stuart Highy (Sun 13 Jan 2019)

Match won by Peter Ginty. Result: 15-7,15-9,11-15,15-7.

Starting level for Peter Ginty: 1,156, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Stuart Highy: 931, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Peter Ginty to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Stuart Highy.

Peter Ginty won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Ginty played 32% better than Stuart Highy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Ginty actually played at a level of 1,194 and Stuart Highy at a level of 902. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Ginty changes to +2.9% and Stuart Highy changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Ginty becomes +2.7% and for Stuart Highy becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Ginty: 80%, Stuart Highy: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Ginty: 77%, Stuart Highy: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Ginty: 1,186, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Stuart Highy: 906, level confidence: 83%.