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David O'Neill v Peter Sharples (Sun 13 Jan 2019)

Match won by David O'Neill. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for David O'Neill: 1,643, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Sharples: 1,025, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
David O'Neill to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Peter Sharples.

David O'Neill won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David O'Neill played 136% better than Peter Sharples in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David O'Neill actually played at a level of 1,992 and Peter Sharples at a level of 845. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David O'Neill changes to +15% and Peter Sharples changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David O'Neill becomes +7.4% and for Peter Sharples becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Masters 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Sharples is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David O'Neill: 89%, Peter Sharples: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David O'Neill: 73%, Peter Sharples: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David O'Neill: 1,762, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Peter Sharples: 978, level confidence: 71%.