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Mark Webster-Smith v Joshua Green (Sun 13 Jan 2019)

Match won by Joshua Green. Result: 11-5,8-11,8-11,9-11.

Starting level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,176, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joshua Green: 1,975, level confidence: 63%.
Mark Webster-Smith to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Joshua Green.

Joshua Green won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joshua Green played 19% better than Mark Webster-Smith in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joshua Green actually played at a level of 2,257 and Mark Webster-Smith at a level of 1,904. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joshua Green changes to +14% and Mark Webster-Smith changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joshua Green becomes +6.2% and for Mark Webster-Smith becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Joshua Green has already increased 21% since starting this event at level 1634. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Joshua Green's increase for this match has been limited to 3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joshua Green: 80%, Mark Webster-Smith: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joshua Green: 70%, Mark Webster-Smith: 74%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Webster-Smith: 2,116, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Joshua Green: 2,043, level confidence: 70%.