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David Freer v Marc Taggart (Sun 13 Jan 2019)

Match won by David Freer. Result: 11-7,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for David Freer: 1,247, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Marc Taggart: 1,085, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
David Freer to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Marc Taggart.

David Freer won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Freer played 43% better than Marc Taggart in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Freer actually played at a level of 1,392 and Marc Taggart at a level of 972. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Freer changes to +10.8% and Marc Taggart changes to -8.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Freer becomes +6.2% and for Marc Taggart becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Isle of Man Iom Elite Players 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Marc Taggart is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Freer: 81%, Marc Taggart: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Freer: 73%, Marc Taggart: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Freer: 1,323, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Marc Taggart: 1,032, level confidence: 81%.